Gold price forecast 2040: what does the future hold for the gold price?

The gold price is making history. With the breaking of the magical barrier of €100,000 per kilo (and prices above $4,000 per troy ounce), gold has definitively stepped out of the shadows as the ultimate store of value. But for the long-term investor, the current price is merely a snapshot in time.

Those buying gold for their retirement or as wealth transfer to the next generation look further ahead. What is the gold price forecast for 2040?

In this article, we analyze the structural trends that will determine the value of gold over the next 15 years. We base this on data from the World Gold Council, historical return models, and macroeconomic shifts.

The road to 2040: where do we stand now?

To make a reliable prediction for 2040, we must first understand the current market situation. The rise of recent years was not driven by speculation, but by fundamental changes in the financial system.

Where gold was sometimes seen in the past as a 'barbarous relic', it has now returned as an indispensable pillar in the global economy.

Major financial institutions such as J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank have already adjusted their price targets for the end of this year upwards. This structural rise is supported by three factors that will remain relevant towards 2040:

1. Central banks are a large player in the market

According to data from the World Gold Council, central banks (especially in Asia and the Middle East) have been buying record amounts of gold since 2022. This is not a temporary trend, but a strategic choice to be less dependent on the dollar and the euro.

Because these major players continuously take physical gold out of the market, a strong price floor is created. Even during economic headwinds, these parties continue to buy, which supports the price.

2. Rising production costs (AISC)

The costs to extract one ounce of gold from the ground, known in mining as all-in sustaining costs (AISC), have risen explosively in recent years. This is due to more expensive energy, higher wages, and stricter environmental requirements.

For many mines, it is simply no longer profitable to mine at lower gold prices. These high production costs create a natural price level below which the gold price can barely drop, because supply would then immediately dry up.

3. The debt trap and financial repression

Western governments are struggling with historically high debt burdens. Interest payments on these sovereign loans weigh heavily on budgets. The only way out for policymakers is a period of 'financial repression': keeping interest rates artificially low while inflation remains relatively high.

In such a climate, where savings in the bank decline in purchasing power, capital historically always flees to gold.

3 structural trends for the gold price towards 2040

Those investing with a horizon of fifteen years are not betting on tomorrow's price. The expectation for the gold price in 2040 rests not on daily speculation, but on three fundamental economic pillars that will be decisive in the coming decades.

1. The shift of the monetary system

Since 1971, world trade has been largely based on the US dollar. However, we are seeing a clear break in this trend. Countries within the BRICS bloc (including China, India, Russia, and Brazil) are actively working on trading systems that are less dependent on the dollar.

Central banks in these regions are buying gold at a record pace for a reason: they are preparing for a financial system in which gold once again plays a central role as neutral collateral.

If gold gets a formal role in international trade settlements or as backing for new digital currencies (CBDCs) towards 2040, the demand for physical gold will increase exponentially.

Current gold reserves are simply insufficient to cover the financial system at current prices, which would necessitate a massive revaluation.

2. 'Peak gold' and physical scarcity

While monetary demand is rising, the supply side is under heavy pressure. We are approaching, or perhaps have already passed, the point of 'peak gold': the moment when maximum global gold production has been reached and begins to decline structurally.

• More difficult extraction: The easily accessible gold veins were already mined in the last century. Mining companies have to dig deeper and deeper for ore with increasingly lower gold concentrations.
• Long lead times: Between the discovery of a new gold mine and the first bar of gold rolling off the line, there is nowadays an average of 15 to 20 years. This is due to stricter environmental requirements and more complex permitting processes.
• Consequence for 2040: In 2040, the supply of new gold is expected to be lower than today. In a market where supply shrinks and demand remains equal or rises, a higher price is the only logical market mechanism.

3. The mathematics of currency devaluation

Gold does not so much rise in value; it is primarily the euro and the dollar that fall in value. Since the introduction of the euro, its purchasing power has halved. This is not a bug in the system, but a feature of fiat money: more of it is continuously printed.

If we assume an average inflation of just 2% to 3% per year until 2040, your savings in the bank will lose another 30% to 40% of their purchasing power. Gold cannot be printed by central banks.

The amount of above-ground gold grows by only about 1.5% per year. This mathematical certainty ensures that gold always overtakes the purchasing power of paper money in the long run.

Steady growth is the most realistic scenario for the gold price towards 2040.

Scenarios: what is the gold price in 2040?

No one has a crystal ball, but we can calculate. Financial markets often move in cycles, and by projecting historical data onto the future, we get a realistic picture of potential price development.

To make a gold price prediction for 2040, analysts often use the compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This is the average annual growth percentage. Since leaving the gold standard in 1971, gold has achieved an average return of over 7% per year.

Below we outline three scenarios for the gold price in 2040. The calculations take the price at the beginning of 2026 as the starting point.

*Estimates are based on current exchange rate ratios. With a weaker euro relative to the dollar, the price in euros per kilogram will turn out even higher.

Analysis of the scenarios

Even in the most conservative scenario ('bearish'), in which gold only follows official inflation figures, we see a doubling of the price relative to levels from a few years ago.

The 'base' scenario, supported by models from GoldRepublic among others and data from the World Gold Council, assumes a continuation of the current trend. In this, we see gold fulfilling its role as a wealth protector and not only preserving the saver's purchasing power but increasing it.

The 'bullish' scenario takes into account a larger shock in the financial system, as we have seen more often in history at the end of a debt cycle. In that case, gold functions as the ultimate insurance, and the price can detach from traditional models.

The most realistic gold price scenario: structural growth

The most likely scenario for 2040 is the 'Base' scenario, with an expected gold price between $10,500 and $11,000 per troy ounce. This scenario follows the historical trend: since 1971, gold has risen by an average of over 7% per year.

The rationale is powerful: central banks are placing a stable floor in the market with their record purchases, while mining costs (AISC) continue to rise due to scarcity ('Peak Gold').

As long as governments struggle with high debts and have to print money, the purchasing power of the euro and dollar will continue to fall. Gold simply functions as the constant factor that compensates for this loss of value.

Expert models: the 'In Gold We Trust' report

To base our expectation for 2040 not only on historical averages, we also look at fundamental valuation models. The most authoritative research in the precious metals market is the annual In Gold We Trust report by asset manager Incrementum AG.

Their analysts, Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek, use complex models that set the gold price against the global money supply (M2) and the balance sheets of central banks.

The gold coverage ratio

A core point in their analysis is the 'coverage ratio'. This measures what percentage of all fiat money (euros and dollars) is theoretically covered by the gold reserves of central banks.

• Historical perspective: In times of high inflation and crises of confidence (such as the 1970s), this coverage ratio shoots up, leading to an explosive rise in the gold price.
• Current situation: Despite recent price increases to above €100,000 per kilo, Incrementum's models show that gold is relatively speaking still not 'expensive'. The amount of money pumped into the system since 2020 has grown faster than the gold price.

Projection towards 2030 and 2040

In their reports from the beginning of this decade, they already predicted a gold price of around $4,800 by 2030. Now that we are already close to this level in 2026, their model proves accurate.

If we extend their conservative growth scenarios to 2040, and take into account the persistent debt problems in the US and Europe, their data supports our 'base' and 'bullish' scenarios.

According to these models, the current bull market is not a temporary peak, but part of a structural revaluation of gold relative to paper money.

• Gold price forecast 2030
• Gold price prediction this year

For the long term buying gold is not speculation. It's a protection against inflation.

Risks and uncertainties: what could depress the gold price?

No investment is without risk, and that applies to gold as well. Although long-term trends (debt and scarcity) point to a rising price towards 2040, scenarios are conceivable in which the gold price could stagnate or fall. A balanced investor takes the following factors into account:

1. A period of high positive real interest rates

The biggest enemy of gold is the so-called 'real interest rate'. This is the interest you receive on the bank or government bonds, adjusted for inflation.

• The scenario: Suppose central banks succeed in getting inflation completely under control (back to 2%) while savings rates remain high (for example 4% or 5%).
• The effect: In that case, 'safe' savings or a bond actually yield a gain in purchasing power. Since gold pays no interest or dividends, it becomes relatively less attractive to large investors in such a scenario, which can depress the price.

2. Competition from digital assets (bitcoin)

Since the approval of crypto ETFs in the US and Europe, bitcoin has become an established asset class. Younger generations in particular sometimes view bitcoin as 'digital gold'.

• The risk: Towards 2040, part of the capital that would traditionally flow into physical gold (as a store of value) might shift to digital assets. Although gold and crypto often exist side by side, this competition could dampen the potential peak of the gold price.

3. Technological breakthroughs in mining

An important argument for a higher gold price is 'peak gold' (scarcity).

• The uncertainty: Technology does not stand still. Should revolutionary breakthroughs occur before 2040 in AI-driven mining or new extraction methods that make it cheap to extract gold from deep layers or even seawater, supply could suddenly increase. A structural increase in supply could slow down the price rise.

4. Government interventions

Although a total ban on gold ownership (like in the US in 1933) seems unlikely in the current digital economy, governments can discourage the flight to gold.

Think of higher taxes on capital gains from precious metals or import duties. This could influence the net return for the investor in 2040.

Choose certainty towards 2040 with TSM

Do you want to protect your wealth and grow along with the gold price? Start building your future today. At The Silver Mountain, you buy not just gold, you buy certainty. As a market leader, we offer you guarantees that are important for the long-term investor.

• 100% authenticity guarantee: All our gold comes from recognized LBMA producers and is thoroughly checked.
• Buy-back guarantee: We always buy your precious metal back from you, regardless of the price or volume.
• Reliable & safe: We hold an AFM license and deliver fully insured to your home or in secure storage.

Conclusion: what do we expect from the gold price in 2040?

Those looking towards 2040 see a financial landscape that is changing irrevocably. The combination of structural scarcity ('Peak Gold'), central banks diversifying their reserves, and the mathematical certainty of currency devaluation forms an ironclad foundation under the gold price.

It is no coincidence that 'smart money' is positioning itself now. In this context, gold is not a speculative stock, but necessary insurance for your wealth. Whether the price stands at $7,500 or $15,000 in 2040: in both cases, the precious metal has done what it has been doing for centuries: protecting your purchasing power against the erosion of paper money.

At The Silver Mountain, we are happy to help you lay this foundation. With our expertise and unique buy-back guarantee, you are assured of a reliable partner, today and in the future.

References

• Deutsche Bank Research. (2026, January). World outlook 2026: Commodities and safe havens. Deutsche Bank.
• GoldRepublic. (2026). Gold price forecast 2025-2030. Accessed on February 25, 2026, from https://www.goldrepublic.com/en-us/gold-price/forecast
• J.P. Morgan Global Research. (2025, November). Global commodities outlook 2026: Structural bullishness returns. J.P. Morgan.
• Stöferle, R.-P., & Valek, M. (2025, May). In gold we trust report 2025. Incrementum AG. https://ingoldwetrust.report/
• World Gold Council. (2026, January 31). Gold demand trends full year 2025. Accessed on February 25, 2026, from https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends
• World Gold Council. (n.d.). Central bank gold reserves. Accessed on February 25, 2026, from https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-central-bank-statistics