The Trump effect on the goldprice

The erratic policy in the second term of U.S. President Trump has a significant impact on the gold price. In this knowledge base article, you will read more about the key effects.

Erratic policy

During Donald Trump’s first term, the gold price rose by as much as 50%, partly due to the unpredictable policies of the U.S. president. In his second term, the policy again seems rather erratic. A key example is the global trade tariffs that the United States (partially) implemented in the first half of 2025.

This difficult-to-predict policy is a major cause of the rising gold price. Traditionally, gold is a safe haven for investors to protect savings and capital. A safe haven that offers security against economic uncertainty. It is precisely Trump’s policies that create a great deal of uncertainty and therefore increase the need for investors to invest in gold.

Geopolitical tensions

Part of the policy is also that Trump is pursuing a more protectionist agenda focused on the domestic economy. More production in America and less money going abroad. This leads to geopolitical tensions because the United States and the U.S. dollar (more on that later) were, with their foreign policy, a meddlesome but fairly predictable factor.

The retreat of the Americans can have an unpredictable effect on geopolitical tensions, once again causing more uncertainty in the market, which is a driver of the gold price.

Weak dollar

Then there are the economic effects. Some effects can boost the gold price—for example, Trump has said he aims for a weak dollar to promote exports. This can cause the gold price to fall. Other economic policies, such as encouraging oil production, can also cause oil prices—and presumably the gold price—to fall.

However, as mentioned earlier, Trump’s policy is considered erratic. His strategy could also be detrimental to the gold price. A weak dollar can, for example, fuel inflation in the American economy, and if the national debt increases significantly, questions may arise about the creditworthiness of the U.S. economy. This, in turn, could lead to more uncertainty and thus a rise in the gold price.

Influence of China and Europe

An important factor in Trump’s policy is also the reaction of Europe and China. China could potentially take over the U.S. role as an economic powerhouse, but is facing its own problems such as an aging population and a shrinking economy.

Europe, as an economically developed power bloc, has good opportunities to grow at the expense of the Americans, but Brussels is known as a slow and bureaucratic institution. Both China and Europe face their own challenges that cannot be resolved in just a few years.

Does Trump’s policy affect the gold price?

Trump’s policy certainly affects the gold price. To a lesser extent, it has a dampening effect because Trump, for example, stimulates U.S. oil production and eases financial sector regulations.

But presumably more of a driving effect, because he mainly brings a lot of uncertainty. His policies contrast with the impact of climate change, and fewer rules for sectors such as finance may be appealing to certain companies, but also bring economic risks. In the end, Trump’s policy mainly brings uncertainty, and that is reflected in the gold price so far.

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Disclaimer: The Silver Mountain does not provide investment advice and this article should not be considered as such. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.