Will the Record Silver Price Continue Toward 2026?

In September 2025, the silver price reached a new record: more than 40 USD per gram. In this knowledge base article, we look at the causes behind this surge and the expectations for the silver price heading into 2026.

Silver Undervaluation

In recent years, silver has lagged somewhat behind gold. Looking at the charts, you can see that the gold price rose more quickly than the silver price, even though economic uncertainty has been present for several years.

There are several possible reasons for this. Silver is almost as well known as gold, but gold still carries more prestige. In addition, silver is more of an industrial commodity than gold, meaning its price is strongly influenced by market demand.

Unfavorable Tax Policy

Specifically in the Netherlands, and in some other countries, an unfavorable tax policy plays a role. Investment silver is subject to 21% VAT in the Netherlands, unlike gold. Until 2025, there was an exception for silver coins under the margin scheme, which meant VAT only had to be paid on the dealer’s profit margin.

As of January 1, 2025, however, silver coins—like silver bars—are subject to 21% VAT. The exception now only applies to coins minted before 2025. Understandably, these older VAT-free coins have become difficult to obtain due to the changing tax rules and the high silver price.

Causes of the High Silver Price

Tax policy alone does not explain the high silver price. The new record is based on the metal price itself, not the retail price of coins and bars. So, what are the reasons the silver price is rising now compared to gold?

The main driver is geopolitical tension. In particular, US government policy—unpredictable import tariffs and rising government debt—has created uncertainty in the market.

Pressure on the Federal Reserve

In addition, the US government is now actively pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. While lower rates reduce the government’s interest payments on national debt, they can also fuel inflation, which is already a concern in the US due to rising debt levels and import tariffs.

This increases market uncertainty. Moreover, potentially lower rates are favorable for both silver and gold. At lower interest rates, it becomes relatively attractive to invest in non-yielding assets like silver and gold, since the opportunity cost of lost interest income is minimal.

Expectations for the Silver Price Toward 2026

Various analysts, including Traders Union and HSBC, have revised their silver price forecasts upward and expect the silver price to rise further into 2026. This growth is mainly linked to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and industrial demand, such as the production of solar panels and electronics.

In addition, the gold price remains persistently high, making silver increasingly attractive as a precious metal with potentially greater upside compared to gold. Whether the silver price will indeed continue to rise into 2026 remains to be seen, but so far there are no indications that the driving factors will diminish.

Buying Silver Safely

Would you like to buy silver safely? Explore our wide range of silver coins and bars. The coins and bars we sell come from recognized producers and mints and are usually available directly from stock.

To partly offset the VAT, we have adjusted our buyback prices for silver. This means you are partially compensated for the VAT difference if you decide to sell your purchased silver back to us. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact our customer service.

Disclaimer: The Silver Mountain does not provide investment advice and this article should not be considered as such. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.